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Following consultation, the electricity authority introduced a new hybrid forecasting arrangement on 31 july 2025 to improve the accuracy of intermittent generation forecasts and offers. Our analysis shows intermittent generators’ forecasts are often inaccurate and that this is affecting reliability, security of supply and can increase costs for consumers. New zealand's weather has a reputation for being unpredictable and keeping both locals and forecasters on their toes.
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The electricity authority is pleased to announce that the contract for a centralised forecast provider for intermittent generation in the new zealand electricity market has been. While wind and solar currently account for less than 8% of new zealand’s total energy generation, by 2050 that number is projected to rise to over 50%. However, behind the famous four seasons in one day.
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Introduce accuracy standards requiring intermittent generators to submit a revised offer to the system operator if the total mw specified in an offer exceeds or falls short of the total mw that.
While offering a centralised forecasting service for intermittent generators is beneficial, this approach may remove incentives for the forecaster and generators to continuously improve. Forecasting tools can provide benefits in helping the system operator and market participants better understand intermittent generation uncertainty and with an increase in intermittent.
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